25 September 2018

AND THE WALLS CAME TUMBLING DOWN






While the Republican-led Senate Judiciary Committee struggles to keep its positive vote for Brett Kavanaugh on track in the face of mounting criticism for its refusal to allow a full discovery and presentation of the pertinent facts, another bomb has exploded in the political square, six weeks before the mid-term elections.

The New York Times report of Rosenstein's inappropriate remarks in the days following the Comey firing have led to his possible resignation or firing. This in turn could jeopardize the Mueller investigation, which Rosenstein is overseeing given the recusal of Jeff Sessions. This gives President Trump the opportunity to be rid of Mueller, whom he has tried to fire before.

Assuming Rosenstein is gone, Trump has two routes under prevailing Justice Department rules: Rosenstein's next-in-line is Solicitor General Neil Francisco, a conservative Jones
Day lawyer, and former partner of White House Counsel McGahn. Trump could press Francisco to fire Mueller, or leave him in place, but sharply control and limit the scope of Mueller's investigation.  If Fransisco refuses, Trump has options.  He can appoint a more compliant previously confirmed lawyer to Rosenstein's position, or do the same to replace Jeff Sessions. That automaton Trumpist could fire Mueller, even if he later fails to be confirmed by the
Senate.

--> Would Trump dare do that? The public outrage would be severe, and it would test the integrity of the Republican Congressional leaders who have reportedly warned Trump not to fire Mueller. But let's not kid ourselves. Those leaders have long since demonstrated a complete lack of integrity, and the likelihood of this House and this Senate impeaching and convicting Trump is slim to none.

But firing Mueller now may not solve Trump's problem. We can safely assume Mueller has by now put together a huge dossier of his findings, some of which may jeopardize not only Trump, but members of his family. Firing Mueller will not make that go away.  There are Justice Department divisions, US attorneys and State Attorneys General who could run with a Mueller hand-off. For Trump, that would be the worst of both worlds: he would suffer adverse publicity, and still be legally hounded.

And in the be-careful-what-you-wish-for department, Watergate is a powerful lesson. Perhaps someone in the White House can break it down in one or two syllable words for Trump. Nixon too was hectored by an inquiring Special Prosecutor. He complained that Archibald Cox was vigorously inquiring of White House operatives about the Watergate break-in of Democratic headquarters. Nixon ordered Attorney General Richardson -- whom I knew personally after negotiating the resignation of our client, Vice President Spiro Agnew -- to fire Cox. I was not surprised when Richardson refused to obey Nixon's order, and resigned. Next in line was William Ruckelshaus  who did the same, and the chore descended upon the shoulders of Solicitor General Robert Bork, who obeyed the Nixon directive, fired Cox, and appointed Leon Jaworski in his place. Jaworski proceeded to pursue Nixon and forced him to resign, and convicted many members of his staff.

While Rosenstein's fate may not be decided until Trump returns from the UN meetings on Thursday, the President has no good options here. This investigation is too far down the road to be effectively derailed, and any attempt to do so might provoke not only a Constitutional crisis, but could threaten to make the so-called Blue Wave into a Blue Tsunami.

My bet for now: Rosenstein stays, Mueller stays. Until the mid-terms. After that, folks, hide in your cellar: all bets are off.

A more concise version of this post is published in Time.com. Click here:

http://time.com/5405150/president-trump-fire-rosenstein-mueller-investigation/

A bientot.