Random Scary Thoughts

1.  A brilliant friend who is a former federal prosecutor told me the other day that he thought Paul Manafort, though facing an effective potential sentence of life imprisonment, would never plead out and cooperate because he knows way too much about Victor Yanukovich, the deposed President of Ukraine, and his dealings with his ally Putin.  My friend suggested the purpose of the recent poisonings in the U.K. was to send a message to Mr. Manafort about the vulnerability of his personal safety and that of his family.

A day after that conversation, another lawyer friend sent me a note that he saw a reader's comment to the same effect in the Washington Post. 

It's scary that we have come to a point where we hear these comments and we don't say "Impossible, it can't happen here." But it is not impossible at all. Stop and think. While the UK imposes reprisals on Russia for the attack in London, and Rex Tillerson, (while he was still the US Secretary of State!) said the deed clearly was done by the Russians, Trump adamantly refused to criticize Putin. Ask yourself, what would Trump do if Manafort were killed by a USSR-developed nerve gas on the eve of an appointment to tell all to Robert Mueller?  Is there any evidence, any evidence at all, that suggests Trump would take punitive action against Russia?

Scary scenario #2.  

The House Intelligence Committee has wound up its inquiry. It has subpoenaed no documents, failed to press Trumpian witnesses who declined to answer questions, and the report drafted by the Republican majority does not even say that which all U.S. intelligence agencies have reported, i.e., that the Russian interference was designed to aid Trump. The pathetic failure of the Republican members of the Nunes Committee to live up to their sworn oath of utmost fealty to our country and its Constitution is beyond scary. It is clear this House, under the direction of Paul Ryan, has cast aside reality and has demonstrated unequivocal fealty to Donald Trump, whose support the members count on to keep their well-financed seats. And this at a time when fair questions are being asked about to whom Donald Trump owes fealty.  We can impeach a President for conduct inimical to our Democracy, but what is the remedy if Congress commits such an offense? The answer is, NUN, "Nothing Until November."

3. Scary scenario #3.

We have endured a long list of Trump's failures to condemn Russia's military and cyber aggression, but the latest is a humdinger. As I understand it, the chronology is as follows:

1. A former Russian official who was caught spying for the U.K., but freed from a Russian prison and sent to the U.K. in a 2010 spy swap, was attacked by Russian nerve gas while sitting with his daughter on a park bench in London. The former spy, his daughter, and a policeman who came to their aid, are in critical condition.

2. Theresa May, the U.K. Prime Minister, then announced her government's inquiry had led to the almost certain conclusion the Russian government sponsored the attack, and publicly demanded Russia explain. Putin ignored her request.

3. Trump's press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, then announced that President would not join in May's criticism of Russia.

4. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson nevertheless, after speaking with British officials, told NBC the attack "clearly" came from Russia.

5. Six hours later, Trump, without contacting Tillerson, tweeted the announcement of his firing.

A coincidence of timing? This "last straw" has caused some to wonder anew if indeed Putin doesn't indeed have something on Trump. The leading candidates are sex tapes and money laundering.

My bet would be on the latter. Trump is, by now, virtually immune from sex scandals. While a photograph or a tape would be more explosive than a mere verbal report (think the picture of Robert Porter's ex-wife's black eye, and the tape of NFL star Ray Rice clocking his fiance and then dragging her from the elevator), I estimate that Trump is not much afraid of that stuff anymore, except maybe for some family issues that money can resolve.  Moreover, if Putin had a sex tape, it's like a gun with one bullet. The only influence it brings to bear is if he does not pull the trigger. Once he shoots, pouf, Putin is powerless.

But money, ahh, that's an AK47 with a full magazine. Lots of bullets. Putin could let out a sample, a single shot, on the target or a near miss, a message that there's lots more ammunition, lots more evidence, lots more transactions. Money laundering and bribery are not just material for social, political, or matrimonial scandals: they are crimes that could put Donald and his family in jail, whether during or after his presidency. Jeff Sessions will not be Attorney General forever.

Methinks that is the real source of Trump's fear. Of course, it is not only Putin that scares him, but Trump's other arch enemy, Robert Mueller.  And that's why I fear for the latter's "safety.'' This House of Representatives has given Trump every signal that it would take no action were Trump to fire Mueller, pardon Manafort, and then invite Putin to the White House for brunch.

Conclusion:

If you are not frightened, you are not paying attention.

A bientot.