A SMOKING BRICK?

No, I have not had a drink before writing this, and the mixed metaphor is intentional.

The press has exhaustively discussed the bricks that are  meticulously being applied to the prison wall Mueller's masons are building around Donald Trump and perhaps other members of the TCF. Again, it is important to recognize that while we know a lot about Trump's malefactions, we actually know but a small fraction of what Mueller knows.  

The latest piece of evidence to leak (ironically enough, from Paul, Manafort's own a defense team!) is that campaign manager Manafort gave private Trump polling data to persons connected to Russian intelligence.

We don't know the details, but Mueller does. If there turns out to be a match between the smuggled polling data and Russia's use of it in the 126 million Facebook posts it made in support of the Trump campaign, then the verdict of collusion by the Trump team is a lock.

Did the craven Manafort seek the boss's approval by telling him what he had done, in order to get credit for helping the campaign ? Really now, does a bear shit in the woods?

At this juncture, we know that Russia helped Trump, and Trump's campaign manager helped Russia help Trump. Is that enough to defeat Trump in 2020? Probably. Is that enough to convict Trump in the Senate? Probably not.

Why did Putin prefer Trump to Clinton? 

And conversely, what is behind Donald Trump's affection for Mr. Putin?  Is Trump's consistent support of the Russian dictator's military and cyber aggression based on a belief that Putin is operating in the best interests of the United States? Does a bear use the men's room?

There are two extant theories to explain Trump's bending to Putin's will:

1. Putin has a video of Trump engaged with Moscow prostitutes. This was reported as a possibility in the Steele dossier.

2. Putin has a firm financial grip on Donald's testicles, and our President, who already suffers from painful heel spurs, fears any further discomfort to other parts of the presidential corpus.

As I have earlier opined, I was never a fan of option No. 1.  It is not because I do not believe the Trump is morally incapable of consorting with Muscovite prostitutes, or that Putin is morally incapable of arranging for and videotaping that scene. I just don't believe that Trump fears the disclosure that much. He is obviously semi-immune from revelations of his sexual promiscuity. And from Putin's side, pulling the trigger on such a disclosure would empty his arsenal. Ya can't blackmail somebody with material once it has appeared on the front page of the New York Times.

Option No. 2, however, has always been in the forefront. You can't say "follow the money" often enough. There is already a substantial amount of published evidence that Trump is much indebted to Russian financiers. Donald Junior has publicly said that Russian money saved one or more of Trump projects, and there's lots of other evidence of Trump seeking to turn rubles into dollars. There was always much speculation about why one or more foreign banks supported a virtually bankrupt Donald Trump who was so far under water in his debt to US banks that they forced him to accept a personal expense budget to avoid foreclosure.

Now we have a wonderfully mysterious new piece to add to the money puzzle. It is the stuff of a John leCarre/ Linda Fairstein novel.

Here are the basics: Pay close attention. This may be a little tougher on the non-lawyers to follow, but I have confidence in you!

Apparently, Mueller served a grand jury subpoena demanding documents from a foreign-government-owned company. Let's call it FGOC for short. FGOC claimed it was immune to grand jury subpoenas by the terms of the Foreign Sovereign Immunity Act (FSIA), which  protects foreign governments from being sued in American courts. The matter was litigated under tight seal.

The District Judge rejected FGOC's objections and ordered it to produce the documents. That opinion was sealed. FGOC then appealed to the Circuit Court of Appeals, which unanimously affirmed the district judge's order. That opinion was also sealed. The District Judge then ordered immediate compliance.

When FGOC failed immediately to produce the documents, the court found it in contempt and ordered it to pay a fine of $50,000 a day until the documents were produced. FGOC immediately sought and received a stay of the contempt order pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Mr. Justice Roberts granted that stay, and referred the matter to the entire bench.

Two days ago, the Supreme Court issued a brief order vacating Justice Roberts' "administrative" stay (i.e., the Roberts stay was not granted on the merits, but only to hold things in place to give the entire Court the opportunity to consider the merits.)

In vacating the stay, the UNANIMOUS Supremes did two things: they i) lifted the curtain a bit and published parts of the appellate court decision, and ii) made it clear the circuit court decision was correct and there was no merit to any further appeal. While many of the operative facts are still blacked out we have learned the following:

FGOC is owned by a foreign government. There is a "reasonable probability" that FGOC "committed an act based outside of the territory of the United States, in connection with a commercial activity of the foreign state elsewhere when that act caused a direct effect in the United States."

What I understand that sentence to say that there was a sort of a three-cushion bank shot: i) FGOC engaged in a commercial transaction, ii) in a second country ("ELSEWHERE") and, iii) that act had a direct effect in the United States. That, said the Court of Appeals, fits squarely within an exception to the FSIA, and FGOC is not immune from the grand jury subpoena. And it is no defense that the documents are now outside the United States!

While details of the "commercial activity" are blacked out, the Supremes’ decision tells us that i) Mueller made "ex parte" submissions to the courts (that means even FGOC and ELSEWHERE do not know what evidence the government has about their activities, and ii) FGOC does what I take to be a minimal amount of business directly in the United States.

Through all that smoke, I smell money laundering. And inasmuch as Mueller has not passed this off to other prosecutorial agencies, I get a strong whiff of Russia. And when you combine Russia, money laundering, and Mueller, you get Trump.

Wishful thinking? Maybe, but I see it as just another application of follow-the-money rubric. And at the end of this brick road, one might find the needed smoking gun.

I know, I know. If this is what I think it is, then the FGOC might well tell the court "Well, you made your judgment, now go enforce it." That would produce an international incident. What position do ya think Pusillanimous Pompeo would take on that issue?

And then, surprise, surprise, there is no mention of bank-shot bumper number two, ELSEWHERE. Did they already give up their documents?

At bottom, more grist for Nancy's mill.

Patience, the grinding stone turns.

A bientot.