WHO REALLY WON?

While the headlines gushed over Trump's defeat at the hands of his buds at the Supreme Court, I suggest there is another aspect to the Court's treatment of Trump. In all likelihood, the voters are going to cast ballots on November 3 without seeing the true depths of Donald Trump's perfidy.

For the sake of simplicity, there were two cases before the Court:

The decision in the Congressional subpoena cases will require the House to reframe their subpoenas, and support them with all kinds of data, such as the lack of access to the information by other means, how the documents will help craft legislation, etc. Basically, this puts the House back to square one, and there is no way they can get any sort of subpoena compliance before 2021. 

But the Vance subpoena is a different kettle of fish. It was served on Trump's accountants fourteen months before the 2020 presidential election. Trump's lawyers then sued to strike the subpoena, claiming their client was immune from state criminal processes.

Thirteen months before the 2020 presidential election, District Court Judge Marrero rendered a detailed and powerful 75-page opinion rejecting Trump's legal claim.

Trump appealed, and his lawyer went so far as to insist the president was immune from state criminal proceedings even if he shot somebody on Fifth Avenue in broad daylight.

12 months before the 2020 presidential election,  the Circuit Court rejected the Trump claim and unanimously affirmed the District Court decision. Case over, right?

Not so fast. Even though most lawyers saw zero merit to an appeal, eleven months before the 2020 presidential election, at least four Justices voted to grant Trump the right to appeal to the Supremes. This decision looked to be the death knell to any pre-election indictment, no matter how the Supremes ruled on the merits.

Now, seven months later, less than four months before the 2020 presidential election, the Supremes have said, "Y'know what, the SDNY District Court, and the 2d Circuit Court of Appeals were absolutely correct." But instead of directing compliance with the subpoena, they sent it back to the District Court to see whether Trump had any other objections to the subpoena. This kind of piecemeal litigation is normally frowned upon in the legal system, and courts are inclined to say, "Whatever claim you didn't raise the first time around, is waived." Not this Court, dealing with this president.

The result is the generally accepted view that Vance too will not get the documents before 2021.

But hold on:  Within three days of the Supreme Court decision, District Judge Marrero ordered the parties to appear before him next week, to see what's left for him to decide.. 

I herewith crawl out on the following fantasy-limb:

Doubtless, at the conference on Jul 16, Trump's lawyers will have a laundry list of additional bullshit objections to the subpoena. And doubtless, Judge Marrero will set a tight briefing schedule. I predict he will post a comprehensive decision rejecting Trump's new claims on or about August 7. It will direct compliance within 5-10 days.

Trump's lawyers will seek an emergency stay from the Circuit Court. It will either be denied for lack of merit, or possibly granted on condition the case be set down for prompt oral argument. In the latter event, a Circuit Court decision affirming the Marrero decision will be issued no later than September 15.

Trump will go back to the Supremes, where his request for a further stay will be denied! (Thomas and Alito dissenting.)

That would give Vance just shy of two months to examine the documents, and get a grand jury indictment spelling out the evidence of Trump's criminality in advance of November 3.  While grand jury evidence is secret, indictments are public.

(There are no real surprises here. Trump directly, and via his company, paid hush money to hide his adulterous dalliances, and directed the payments be disguised as legal fees, which presumably were claimed as deductions on the State tax returns filed by Trump and his company, and/or constituted felony falsification of business records. Trump was effectively named as an unindicted conspirator in the SDNY's indictment of Trump lawyer Michael Cohen concerning those payments. Vance has spoken at length with Cohen, and knows exactly what he is looking for. My guess is he has already drafted the indictment.)

Fantasy? Not quite. Very unlikely? For sure. Possible? You betcha.

A bientot.

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