NOTHING TO FEAR

Way back on October 31, 2017, I predicted that Paul Manafort "Had Nothing to Fear" because he knew his buddy and co-conspirator Donald Trump would pardon him. See my piece at http://time.com/5003107/paul-manafort-donald-trump-indictment/

How did Manafort know that? Because, as the NY Times disclosed a year ago, lawyers for Trump and Manafort had discussed [and agreed to?] a pardon, that's how.

But then Manafort and Trump surprised me. No pardon. Manafort went to trial facing 18 counts in a Virginia district his lawyers thought more likely to acquit, before a judge that seemed hostile to the prosecution. 

Manafort rolled the dice and crapped out: guilty on ten counts, hung jury (one holdout) on eight. In a cushy Virginia jail "suite", (phone, tv, email, lots of visitors) Manafort awaited sentencing. But he also faced a Mueller indictment on other charges in D.C., and pending that trial, was moved to a stark cell in a local D.C. jail. It was at that point that he surprised me again, and copped to two counts of a multi-count indictment. And he signed a plea agreement, in the hopes that his cooperation would yield a reduced sentence.

Now a third surprise, that brings me back to my original projection: Mueller now reveals that Manafort has repeatedly lied to him, with the result that Manafort not only has lost his effort to get a reduced sentence, but now may face prosecution on the eight hung counts in Virginia and the slew of dropped counts in D.C.  

Result: Manafort now faces life in prison. Duh, what's wrong with this picture?

You believe in coincidences? Just days before Mueller's announcement of Manafort's "crimes and lies," Trump launched a tirade at Mueller, saying because they have found no collusion, Mueller's people "have gone absolutely nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come up with the answers they want. They are a disgrace to our nation."

Hmm. How would Trump know that? Y'think there has been communication between Trump and Manafort, camps?  [After writing this piece last night, I saw a "Breaking News" report that Manafort's lawyers had been reporting all Manafort-Mueller conversations to Trump lawyers! The naifs at the Times suggested Manafort was doing this to induce Trump to pardon him. Nah, this was not an effort to persuade Trump. I have no doubt Manafort's decision to cooperate with Trump and not Mueller was Manafort's performance of his obligations under the Trump-Manafort cooperation agreement. The only thing I do not understand is why Manafort even bothered to sign an agreement with Mueller, in which he surrendered all his assets, including his $1.3 million wardrobe (including the ostrich vest) and his five homes. Ahh, it will all come out in the wash.]

So here is my conclusion: Manafort is not risking life in prison. Not even close. Mark your smartphone calendar: promptly after the 2020 election, win or lose, Trump will pardon Manafort, who will have spent a little over two years in federal jails and prisons. Those two years are the dues Manafort must pay because Donald Trump comes first, and Donald Trump ain't gonna pardon Paul Manafort before November 4, 2020.

Write it down. And make sure your note says, "London predicted this."

A bientot.

N.B.  And don't forget one other possible reason for Manafort's reluctance to tell all: He is literally a man who knows too much.

For years Paul Manafort represented Victor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian President who worked hand in glove with Vladimir Putin. How much does Manafort know?  However much or little it is, he is sufficiently prudent to fear that Mr. Putin will consider it "too much." The result is that if Manafort really told Mueller everything he knows, (as his plea agreement with Mueller required), he risked suffering the fate of Alexander Litvinenko, killed by radioactive poison in the tea he drank with some visiting Russians, and Serge Scripal, the Russian who spied for the Brits, who suffered a near-death experience from a lethal Russian poison applied to the front door knob of his U.K dwelling.  Trump, you will recall, not only refused to join the Brits in condemning Putin for the Scripal poisoning, he fired his Secretary of State who did! (See my blog of 14 March 2018, "Scary Thoughts.")

And in this case, how deeply would Trump mourn the passing of a key adverse witness?

Night, night, children.