NOTHING TO FEAR
Way back on October 31, 2017,
I predicted that Paul Manafort "Had Nothing to Fear" because he knew
his buddy and co-conspirator Donald Trump would pardon him. See my piece at http://time.com/5003107/paul-manafort-donald-trump-indictment/
How did Manafort know that? Because,
as the NY Times disclosed a year ago, lawyers for Trump and Manafort had discussed [and agreed to?] a pardon, that's how.
But then Manafort and Trump
surprised me. No pardon. Manafort went to trial facing 18 counts in a Virginia
district his lawyers thought more likely to acquit, before a judge that seemed
hostile to the prosecution.
Manafort rolled the dice and crapped
out: guilty on ten counts, hung jury (one holdout) on eight. In a cushy Virginia jail "suite",
(phone, tv, email, lots of visitors) Manafort awaited sentencing. But he also faced a Mueller indictment on
other charges in D.C., and pending that trial, was moved to a stark cell in a
local D.C. jail. It was at that point that he surprised me again, and copped to two
counts of a multi-count indictment. And he signed a plea agreement, in the hopes
that his cooperation would yield a reduced sentence.
Now a third surprise, that
brings me back to my original projection: Mueller now reveals that Manafort has
repeatedly lied to him, with the result that Manafort not only has lost his effort
to get a reduced sentence, but now may face prosecution on the eight hung counts
in Virginia and the slew of dropped counts in D.C.
Result: Manafort now faces life in
prison. Duh, what's wrong with this picture?
You believe in coincidences? Just
days before Mueller's announcement of
Manafort's "crimes and lies," Trump launched a tirade at Mueller, saying
because they have found no collusion, Mueller's people "have gone absolutely
nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come
up with the answers they want. They are a disgrace to our nation."
Hmm. How would Trump know
that? Y'think there has been
communication between Trump and Manafort, camps? [After writing this piece last night, I saw a
"Breaking News" report that Manafort's lawyers had been reporting all
Manafort-Mueller conversations to Trump lawyers! The naifs at the Times suggested Manafort was doing this to induce Trump to pardon him. Nah, this was not an effort to persuade Trump. I have no doubt Manafort's decision to cooperate with Trump and not Mueller was Manafort's performance of his obligations under the Trump-Manafort cooperation agreement. The only thing I do not understand is why Manafort even bothered to sign an agreement with Mueller, in which he surrendered all his assets, including his $1.3 million wardrobe (including the ostrich vest) and his five homes. Ahh, it will all come out in the wash.]
So here is my conclusion:
Manafort is not risking life in
prison. Not even close. Mark your smartphone calendar: promptly after the 2020
election, win or lose, Trump will pardon Manafort, who will have spent a little over two years in federal jails and prisons. Those two years are the dues Manafort must pay
because Donald Trump comes first, and Donald Trump ain't gonna pardon Paul
Manafort before November 4, 2020.
Write it down. And make sure your
note says, "London predicted this."
A bientot.
N.B. And don't forget one other possible reason
for Manafort's reluctance to tell all: He is literally a man who knows too much.
For years Paul Manafort represented
Victor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian President who worked hand in glove with Vladimir
Putin. How much does Manafort know? However
much or little it is, he is sufficiently prudent to fear that Mr. Putin
will consider it "too much." The result is that if Manafort really told Mueller
everything he knows, (as his plea agreement with Mueller required), he risked suffering the fate of
Alexander Litvinenko, killed by radioactive poison in the tea he drank with some visiting Russians, and Serge Scripal, the Russian who spied for the Brits, who suffered a
near-death experience from a lethal Russian poison applied to the front door knob
of his U.K dwelling. Trump, you will recall, not only refused to join the Brits in condemning Putin for the Scripal poisoning, he fired his Secretary of State who did! (See my blog of 14 March 2018, "Scary Thoughts.")
And in this case, how deeply would Trump mourn the passing of a key adverse witness?
And in this case, how deeply would Trump mourn the passing of a key adverse witness?
Night, night, children.